Berlin Shows How Priced-In Risks Create a Market of Opportunities
When I talk to entrepreneurs from other sectors about residential real estate, they often tell me that I’m overly optimistic about the market. This feedback isn’t unfamiliar to me; we real estate agents are generally considered to be professional optimists anyway. I like to reply: I’m not being optimistic, I’m reading the numbers. And these figures now paint a clear picture. What we’ve observed in discussions, negotiations, and transactions over recent months is confirmed by market data and our new Residential Investment Barometer.
The Index Hits a Record High
The new Schick Residential Investment Index has reached a record high. At 59.6 points, it is at its highest level since the survey began, indicating that the market has left its period of uncertainty behind. The index aggregates key findings from a sentiment survey of 3,000 private and commercial investors, covering expected price developments, investment opportunities, and buying and selling strategies. With this new record high, the index confirms what has already become apparent in many discussions. Market participants see an attractive environment for investments.
Over 80 per cent of respondents expect prices to remain stable or rise, and around 60 per cent are planning new acquisitions within the next 12 months. This is not euphoria; it reflects the behaviour of an industry that has accepted the new price and interest rate environment and is actively trading again. The index’s record high is therefore not spectacular, but consistent. It confirms trends long visible in the market.
Berlin: A Market Full of Opportunities
The picture becomes particularly compelling when we focus on Berlin. The capital is by far Germany’s largest residential investment market, accounting for 24 per cent of the sales volume among the country’s 50 largest cities. And this despite the fact that it is arguably the city with the most intense housing policy debates – from the failed rent cap and expropriation initiatives to ever-new proposals for tenancy law interventions. Such a complex environment might be expected to deter investors.
Our nationwide survey shows the opposite. Berlin attracts strong national and international interest: 60 per cent of respondents across Germany rate the capital an attractive investment destination. For 45 per cent, population growth is the main driver, while the city’s economic and academic strengths also play a key role. Berlin’s political debates are well-known, factored into prices, and treated as part of the calculation by investors.
Anyone who objects that this is “merely” a snapshot of sentiment will find the same trend reflected in the “hard” market data. The Berlin residential property market report for Q3 2025 shows that activity has increased significantly once again. The transaction volume reached €728.6 million, roughly 34 per cent above last year – with an average of 195 sales per quarter over the past four quarters, about 20 per cent higher than the same period the previous year. More capital, more deals, greater willingness to close at attractive prices.
Implications for Investors
85 per cent of respondents rate the current market as neutral to positive. This is not a sudden swing in sentiment, but rather the result of a market realigning itself.
Berlin plays a special role: The city is politically demanding, yet remains moderately priced and offers very attractive entry prices compared to the rest of Germany, prices that don’t reflect its status as an international city. Those who understand the framework and are willing to work within it will find opportunities here that other markets cannot match.
The Residential Investment Barometer’s record high, Berlin’s attractiveness in our survey, and rising transaction volumes all tell the same story: the residential investment market exhibits positive stability, particularly in Berlin. Clearly priced-in risks create opportunities for alert investors.
You could call that optimistic. I call it reading the numbers.